Laying The Draw
Whilst Laying The Draw can be an extremely profitable trading technique it can also be very costly when it goes wrong, so here’s what I do to minimise the losses.
I also tend to choose and recommend matches in which my research indicates the favourites will score an early goal and a fast profit can be made.
As I said in a previous post I have very few rules etched in stone but this is one of them: I never, ever let a trade continue beyong the 2.00 point.
In fact I very often trade out when the Back the Draw odds reach 2.50 but this depends on the feeling I have for the match. The amount of matches I trade without watching them live is minimal. My office looks like a scene from Mission Control at NASA, not to mention the array of satellite dishes stuck all over the house and garden. I am a bit lucky in as much as Spanish TV seems happy to broadcast football matches all day, every day, and when their matches aren’t tradeable I can generally get live coverage of most matches in Europe somehow or other.
I know that some people will set a get out point of x number of ticks below their original lay bet, so that if the odds started at 4.00 they will get out at 2.5, others will trade out after a certain number of minutes or if the underdog scores first. Everybody has their own trading techniques (or should have). Here are mine:-
- Never let the Back the Draw odd drop below 2.00
- Start contemplating trading out as soon as the match starts – keep an eye on how the game is going – does it look like at least one of the teams actually wants to win? This is especially important because you can always put on an Under 2.5 Goals trade at the same time
- If the underdogs score first and I am watching the game I will assess how I think the match will go and trade accordingly. If it looks like the underdogs are either going to hang on or even score again I will stay in the trade, although, if they have not extended their lead, when I reach the break even point I will generally trade out. If it is early in the match and the favourites are pushing for an equaliser then I will stay in the trade and wait for the equaliser and then hopefully for the favourites to take the lead and then take the profit.
- Whenever a goal is scored by the favourites I wait for the odds to settle down and then take my profit. If they score another goal and the Back the Draw odds rise drastically then that’s too bad. I am happy to have my profit.
- I sometimes consider backing the 0-0 score to minimise any potential losses, and while this can be an effective way of ‘hedging your bets’ I don’t tend to do it very often as I do so much research before my trades I always go into my trades fully confident that my predictions will be right. I know that sounds amazingly arrogant but it’s not intended that way, and I know, to my cost that I don’t get it right every time, but on nearly all the occasions that I have backed 0-0 a goal has been scored in the first few minutes.
I’m sure that I’ve missed a few things out of my list, so I apologise in advance for this.
I’ve opened up the commenting facility on this post and would be very happy to hear from anybody who would care to share their trading exit strategies.
Filed under: Lay The Draw
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