Laying The Draw



Whilst Laying The Draw can be an extremely profitable trading technique it can also be very costly when it goes wrong, so here’s what I do to minimise the losses.

I also tend to choose and recommend matches in which my research indicates the favourites will score an early goal and a fast profit can be made.

As I said in a previous post I have very few rules etched in stone but this is one of them: I never, ever let a trade continue beyond the 2.00 point.

In fact I very often trade out when the Back the Draw odds reach 2.50 but this depends on the feeling I have for the match. The amount of matches I trade without watching them live is minimal. My office looks like a scene from Mission Control at NASA, not to mention the array of satellite dishes stuck all over the house and garden. I am a bit lucky in as much as Spanish TV seems happy to broadcast football matches all day, every day, and when their matches aren’t tradeable I can generally get live coverage of most matches in Europe somehow or other.

I know that some people will set a get out point of  x number of ticks below their original lay bet, so that if the odds started at 4.00 they will get out at 2.5, others will trade out after a certain number of minutes or if the underdog scores first. Everybody has their own trading techniques (or should have). Here are mine:-

  • Never let the Back the Draw odd drop below 2.00
  • Start contemplating trading out as soon as the match starts – keep an eye on how the game is going – does it look like at least one of the teams actually wants to win? This is especially important because you can always put on an Under 2.5 Goals trade at the same time
  • If the underdogs score first and I am watching the game I will assess how I think the match will go and trade accordingly.     If it looks like the underdogs are either going to hang on or even score again I will stay in the trade, although, if they have not extended their lead, when I reach the break even point I will generally trade out.     If it is early in the match and the favourites are pushing for an equaliser then I will stay in the trade and wait for the equaliser and then hopefully for the favourites to take the lead and then take the profit.
  • Whenever a goal is scored by the favourites I wait for the odds to settle down and then take my profit. If they score another goal and the Back the Draw odds rise drastically then that’s too bad. I am happy to have my profit.
  • I sometimes consider backing the 0-0 score to minimise any potential losses, and while this can be an effective way of  ‘hedging your bets’ I don’t tend to do it very often as I do so much research before my trades I always go into my trades fully confident that my predictions will be right. I know that sounds amazingly arrogant but it’s not intended that way, and I know, to my cost that I don’t get it right every time, but on nearly all the occasions that I have backed 0-0 a goal has been scored in the first few minutes.

I’m sure that I’ve missed a few things out of my list, so I apologise in advance for this.


7 thoughts on “Laying The Draw

  1. Hello,
    You have explained the “lay the draw” system very nicely. Though i have a question. How do you choose which match to play in? For example would it be one where the draw is with odds 3-5? Or the favourites from 1.80-2.00? Or would it also be good if there was no a favourite team so there is no underdog goal?
    Actually i have tried this strategy before and it didn’t work for me in long terms, but i may have made mistakes by selecting not suitable matches to bet on.

  2. Here is what I do:


    – Home team below evens

    – Draw price below 4.0 (if the price is not below 4.0 before KO, I will keep an eye on the match and if 0-0 or 1-1 at HT, I will look at laying the draw then)

    – No recent 0-0 results for either team

    – Head-to-Head between the teams indicates lots of goal (should be within the last two years)

    – I generally do not take any insurance on the 0-0

    – I will also seriously consider laying the draw for any game in the English Premier league, German Bundesliga, or Spanish La Liga that is a 0-0 or 1-1 draw at HT


    – I tend to stake to a maximum 20% of my bank, rounded up to the nearest $5


    – If the favourite team scores first, I get out of my position and green up

    – If the dog scores first, I do the “Metaltone” strategy: back the draw for 50% of my initial lay stake and lay the “dog” for 75% of my initial lay stake. If there is an equaliser, you can then green up for overall profit. If there is no equaliser and the dog goes on to win, I accept the loss (or in some cases small profit) that I have on the dog and move on to the next game

    – If still 0-0 when the draw price hits 2.0, I “red” up and accept the loss

    Advanced Strategies (not recommended for novices or risk-averse):

    1.) If you red up when the draw hits 2.0 at 0-0, you can then back either Under 1.5 or Under 2.5 for enough to cover your loss, but this of course involves a much bigger investment. if the game definitely looks like a low scorer, though, then this could be a viable way to limit your loss.

    2.) When the draw price hits 2.0 and the score is still 0-0, instead of redding up, you can back the draw for double your liability then get out whent he price hits 1.8 or the game hits the 70′ mark, which should make your loss about 15% of your initial liability

  3. Hello Paul

    Now I have sent the email again to you. Could you kindlly let me know what you think about the techniques outlined?


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